March Madness Brackets Made Easy
March Madness is easy to predict. You just need to see the signals in the noise—that is, look at the right stats!
So here they are:
KenPom Efficiency Ratings: Over the last 20 years, only 3 National Champions have come outside of the KenPom top 5. So there’s your winner: either Houston, UConn, Purdue, Auburn, or Houston.
Turnover Rate. Historically there are about 10 upsets in every NCAA Tournament. So in order to have a shot at a good bracket, we need to predict some upsets. And it doesn’t matter if you’re a 1-seed, 2-seed, or 16-seed, if you lose the turnover battle in the NCAA Tournament you’re likely to get bounced. This can happen to anyone—and I mean anyone. Just ask 2023 Arizona (#2 seed) or Purdue (#1 seed). This year, I look at teams like Houston and Iowa State, who are respectively number 1 and number 2 in Turnover Margin, as 2 teams unlikely to lose many turnover battles this March. Complete list of all Turnover Margin leaders.
Rebounding Margin: Last year #14 seed Furman took down #3 seed Virginia in the first round because Virginia stunk at rebounding. Virginia was (is) a powerhouse program, from a powerhouse conference. They had 3 giants over 6’10 on their roster last year, and one would expect them to dominate the glass against the mid-major Furman. But they didn’t; it was pretty much dead even battle on the boards. This allowed Furman to stick around in the game long enough to allow the Madness of March Madness to creep into the equation. Virginia was ranked #307 in Team Rebounds in 2023, so whether it was Forman in the first round or someone else in the second round, Virginia was not equipped for success in the tournament. I am looking for more of these highly-ranked, yet poor rebounding teams to go down early in this year’s tourney as well.
Arizona will let you down. As a UofA fan, this one hurts to admit, but don’t bet the Cats. I just can’t take another heartbreak. The University of Arizona is one of the nation’s premier college basketball programs. Year after year they go toe to toe with Duke, Kentucky and UCLA for the nation’s best recruits, consistently rankin the top-5, and have one of the largest fan bases in all of college basketball. But, early or late, they will break your heart in March Madness.
So without further ado, here’s my bracket!
Wow! What a BYU Homer you have become. With a mother, brother and daughter all alums of the UofA, I have charitable feelings for the Wildcats but not enough to ever cheer for them myself despite all the “Bear Down Cats” cacophonous pleas emitted from Tucson.